Macro Tide · the research library
The economy, read weekly. The rules, written down.
Six readings of the economic cycle become one allocation, every Sunday. The current edition, the letters, the series that built the model, and the tests behind every rule — including the ones that changed nothing.
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This week · the current edition
The credit alarm went off, and the book is cutting risk for the first time
What the six readings said, what the engine did, and the week in numbers. Published Sunday for the week ending Friday.
Daily monitor
The daily figures behind the fast-cut and the Gundlach duration gate, updated on publishing days.
8 Nov 2026Week in review
The week's economic prints against expectations: what came in better, what came in worse, and what changed the read.
20 Sep 2026Who absorbs the duration — signal watch, 20 September 2026
Two commentators this weekend put the same question to the Federal Reserve and reached opposite conclusions about it. Mark Meldrum (19 September) argued that the September projections are internally…
Earlier editions
Latest
New pieces across every type, newest first.
The model wireframe
Every gate and tilt in the order the engine applies them, from the regime read to the cash floor.
9 Nov 2026Macro Tide v2: the one change worth making
A proposed second version of the three books, in beta. Where the engine gives ground and why, the nine changes we tested and rejected, the one that passed, and what it would have done in every holding period of the record.
28 Oct 2026Should you convert to Roth, and how much Roth today
Type your own numbers and get two plain answers: whether a year-by-year Roth conversion pays for your household, and how much of this year's savings belongs in Roth. Nothing you type leaves your browser. Education, not advice.
25 Oct 2026Beyond Timing, Part 4: one engine, three books
The week the model was rebuilt: the three Macro Tide products, the gates, and how each change was tested before it went live.
25 Oct 2026Reading the Macro Tide
A plain walk through the six readings, the conviction score, and how they become an allocation.
25 Oct 2026The model on one page
Inputs, rules and thresholds on a single sheet, with the version each came in.
25 Oct 2026Macro Tide Summit, in preparation
Built to fall far less than the market, and to earn more than it over a full cycle: Core's engine with more of the market in it, carried in listed index calls. How it works, the simulated record with its basis, the hard stretches since 1996, and what can go wrong.
9 Oct 2026Feed People
Three weeks away in the Kumaon hills, at Kainchi Dham and at Gaya — and the duration threshold the model crossed on the day after I left.
Letters
The occasional letter: where I was, what the model did while I was away, and what it meant for the three books.
Feed People
Three weeks away in the Kumaon hills, at Kainchi Dham and at Gaya — and the duration threshold the model crossed on the day after I left.
9 October 2026Start here
A first visit, in three steps: how the model reads the economy, the rule it grew out of, and how to read the gauge yourself.
Reading the Macro Tide
A plain walk through the six readings, the conviction score, and how they become an allocation.
25 October 20262Beyond Timing, Part 1: the one boring rule that won
Everything tried to beat the S&P 500 over two decades of data, and the plain rule that came out ahead.
9 August 20263Reading the gauge: composites, momentum and the 2×2
A level, a direction, and the rule that turns direction into a state — worked on the September 2026 row, and why inflation can read as decelerating in the week the Fed hiked.
16 September 2026Signal watch
The policy-and-liquidity read between editions: what changed, what it means for the Fed path and for funding, what would confirm or invalidate it.
Who absorbs the duration — signal watch, 20 September 2026
Two commentators this weekend put the same question to the Federal Reserve and reached opposite conclusions about it. Mark Meldrum (19 September) argued that the September projections are internally…
16 Sep 2026Dr Copper's two prices — signal watch, 16 September 2026
Correction, appended 2026-09-16 evening. The spread figures first published in this piece — +49.5pp, 92nd percentile, COPX +88.1% — are the July 2026 reading, which is the latest month in which both…
15 Sep 2026Three horsemen, one meeting — signal watch, 15 September 2026
The first September regional survey came in at 7.6 against 14.75 expected, from 20.6 in August — a thirteen-point fall and the largest one-month drop of this cycle. It landed on the morning before a…
14 Sep 2026Policy and liquidity signal watch, 14 September 2026
Net change since the prior check: materially tighter financial conditions, with the tightening now coming from both the expected Fed path and a broad long-end and commodity shock. The most…
Deep dives
The long reads: the series that built the model, and the questions that needed a whole piece.
Collection
Beyond Timing
The four long reads that built the model, in the order they were written. Each one corrects the last.
- 1
Beyond Timing, Part 1: the one boring rule that won
Everything tried to beat the S&P 500 over two decades of data, and the plain rule that came out ahead.
2Beyond Timing, Part 2: the free lunch that beat the ladder
Diversification measured properly: why the mix of sleeves did more than the timing rule alone.
3Beyond Timing, Part 3: when the tide moves the boats
The six-cycle read of the economy, what it can and cannot do for a portfolio, and the evidence since 2007.
4Beyond Timing, Part 4: one engine, three books
The week the model was rebuilt: the three Macro Tide products, the gates, and how each change was tested before it went live.
More long reads
Pre-registered tests and what they found, including the ones that changed nothing.
Macro Tide v2: the one change worth making
A proposed second version of the three books, in beta. Where the engine gives ground and why, the nine changes we tested and rejected, the one that passed, and what it would have done in every holding period of the record.
9 November 2026Macro Tide Summit, in preparation
Built to fall far less than the market, and to earn more than it over a full cycle: Core's engine with more of the market in it, carried in listed index calls. How it works, the simulated record with its basis, the hard stretches since 1996, and what can go wrong.
25 October 2026
Own the constraints, not the narratives
What the All-In Summit 2026 said about the AI trade: the revenue gate, the slowdown narrative, Nvidia and Hugging Face, SpaceX as a listed stock, and who gets paid either way.
19 September 2026The glide: averaging cash back into the sleeves after a low
Why Core loses to the S&P in strong years, split into cash drag and diversification, and whether a glide back in would have helped. Nothing wired.
15 September 2026Is the fast-cut late?
A published figure that did not reproduce, the credit leg as the early warning, and why per-sleeve cuts were rejected.
14 September 2026A scan for early sleeve-level exit signals
Which indicators, if any, say something about a sleeve's next month, tested on nineteen years of data.
14 September 2026Methodology
How the engine reads the economy and turns the read into an allocation, from the one-page summary to the arithmetic.
The model wireframe
Every gate and tilt in the order the engine applies them, from the regime read to the cash floor.
28 Oct 2026Should you convert to Roth, and how much Roth today
Type your own numbers and get two plain answers: whether a year-by-year Roth conversion pays for your household, and how much of this year's savings belongs in Roth. Nothing you type leaves your browser. Education, not advice.
25 Oct 2026Reading the Macro Tide
A plain walk through the six readings, the conviction score, and how they become an allocation.
25 Oct 2026The model on one page
Inputs, rules and thresholds on a single sheet, with the version each came in.
16 Sep 2026Reading the gauge: composites, momentum and the 2×2
A level, a direction, and the rule that turns direction into a state — worked on the September 2026 row, and why inflation can read as decelerating in the week the Fed hiked.
3 Sep 2026Skill times breadth: the reading list
The investors and papers the approach is built on, and what each taught us.
31 Aug 2026The gauge math
The arithmetic behind each of the six readings, for those who want to check the sums.
31 Aug 2026The regime allocator
An interactive walk through the regime map and the allocation each regime implies.
26 Aug 2026The Fed balance sheet
How the Federal Reserve's balance sheet changes the money in the system, and why liquidity leads.
Earlier work
The research on one index position that preceded the model, kept because the lessons still hold.
Where a trend score is valid
A trend-momentum score means something only for some instruments; the split that keeps it honest.
19 Aug 2026Beating the S&P: consolidated findings
Every rule tested on the way to the model, with what worked, what did not, and the numbers.
11 Aug 2026Risk-managed SPY exposure
The framework paper: trend, breadth and volatility as three dials on one index position.
10 Aug 2026The SPY regime ladder
The exposure ladder that preceded the six-cycle model: rungs, triggers and what each regime allows.
10 Aug 2026Weekly swing: the system guide
The operating manual for the weekly process: when to read, when to act, and how to record it.
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