Macro Tide · the research library
The economy, read weekly. The rules, written down.
Six readings of the economic cycle become one allocation, every Sunday. Here is the current read, the series that built the model, the methodology in full, and the tests behind every rule, including the ones that changed nothing.
The series
4 pieces
Beyond Timing: the four long reads that built the model, in order.
Beyond Timing, Part 1: the one boring rule that won
Everything tried to beat the S&P 500 over two decades of data, and the plain rule that came out ahead.
9 August 2026
Beyond Timing, Part 2: the free lunch that beat the ladder
Diversification measured properly: why the mix of sleeves did more than the timing rule alone.
19 August 2026
Beyond Timing, Part 3: when the tide moves the boats
The six-cycle read of the economy, what it can and cannot do for a portfolio, and the evidence since 2007.
3 September 2026
Beyond Timing, Part 4: one engine, three books
The week the model was rebuilt: the three Macro Tide products, the gates, and how each change was tested before it went live.
14 September 2026Methodology
6 pieces
How the engine reads the economy and turns the read into an allocation.
Reading the Macro Tide
A plain walk through the six readings, the conviction score, and how they become an allocation.
13 September 2026
The model on one page
Inputs, rules and thresholds on a single sheet, with the version each came in.
13 September 2026
The model wireframe
Every gate and tilt in the order the engine applies them, from the regime read to the cash floor.
14 September 2026
The gauge math
The arithmetic behind each of the six readings, for those who want to check the sums.
31 August 2026
The Fed balance sheet
How the Federal Reserve's balance sheet changes the money in the system, and why liquidity leads.
26 August 2026
Skill times breadth: the reading list
The investors and papers the approach is built on, and what each taught us.
3 September 2026Research notes
2 pieces
Pre-registered tests and what they found, including the ones that changed nothing.
Is the fast-cut late?
A published figure that did not reproduce, the credit leg as the early warning, and why per-sleeve cuts were rejected.
14 September 2026
A scan for early sleeve-level exit signals
Which indicators, if any, say something about a sleeve's next month, tested on nineteen years of data.
14 September 2026Playbooks
5 pieces
The earlier research on one index position, kept because the lessons still hold.
The SPY regime ladder
The exposure ladder that preceded the six-cycle model: rungs, triggers and what each regime allows.
10 August 2026
Risk-managed SPY exposure
The framework paper: trend, breadth and volatility as three dials on one index position.
11 August 2026
Beating the S&P: consolidated findings
Every rule tested on the way to the model, with what worked, what did not, and the numbers.
19 August 2026
Weekly swing: the system guide
The operating manual for the weekly process: when to read, when to act, and how to record it.
10 August 2026
Where a trend score is valid
A trend-momentum score means something only for some instruments; the split that keeps it honest.
7 August 2026Tools
3 pieces
Spreadsheets and interactive pages for readers who want to check the work.
The regime allocator
An interactive walk through the regime map and the allocation each regime implies.
31 August 2026
The model workbook
The engine's rules and current readings in a spreadsheet, for your own checks. Excel.
14 September 2026
The indicator sheet
The series behind the six readings, with sources and the latest values. Excel.
1 September 2026Earlier editions
3 pieces
Every weekly note since the first.
Macro Tide No. 3 — The print landed, the consumer flinched
Macro Tide No. 3 — The print landed, the consumer flinched 🌊 Macro Tide Command Center ← Home Macro Tide · No. 3 Proprietary Weekly Regime Note · No. 3 · Week e
11 September 2026
Macro Tide No. 2 — Goldilocks on paper, hotter underneath
Macro Tide No. 2 — Goldilocks on paper, hotter underneath 🌊 Macro Tide Command Center ← Home Weekly Regime Note · No. 2 · Week ending Sep 4, 2026 Goldilocks on
4 September 2026
Regime Note — 2026-08-31
Regime Note — 2026-08-31 🌊 Macro Tide Command Center ← Home Weekly Regime Note · The Regime Allocator 2026-08-31 GOLDILOCKS conviction +0.03 · moderate liquidit
31 August 2026Subscribe
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